Wednesday, May 07, 2008

More delegate math

Now that North Carolina and Indiana have spoken, it is time to update the delegate math...

Barak Obama has 1584 pledged delegates and 252 super delegates for a total of 1836 delegates (Source).

Hillary Clinton has 1415 pledged delegates and 266 super delegates for a total of 1681 delegates (Source).

John Edwards has 18 pledged delegates.

Democratic candidates need 2024 delegates to win the nomination.
Obama therefore needs 188 more delegates (1836 + 188 = 2024).
Hillary needs 343 more delegates (1681 + 343 = 2024).

3535 delegates awarded so far (1836 + 1681 + 18).
There are 4049 total delegates (Source).
There are, then, 514 delegates remaining.

There are 221 pledged delegates left, ranked in descending delegate order below:

Puerto Rico has 55 delegates and votes on June 7th
Oregon has 52 delegates and votes on May 20th
Kentucky has 51 delegates and votes on May 20th
West Virginia has 28 delegates and votes on May 13th
Montana has 16 delegates and votes on June 3rd
South Dakota has 15 delegates and votes on June 3rd
Guam has 4 delegates and votes on May 3rd

This means there are 293 super delegates remaining (514 - 221)

Now that we have the updated info we can look at the updated odds.

Obama needs 188 of the 514 remaining delegates, so he needs 36.58% (an improvement of 6.8% since last check) of the total to win the nomination (188/514).

Hillary needs 343 of the 514 remaining delegates, so she needs 66.73% (a drop in the odds of 8.06% since last check) of the total to win the nomination (343/514).

Hillary has never achieved those kinds of pledged delegate numbers in this race. The closest she has come to that is in American Samoa where she grabbed 2 of the 3 delegates for 66.66%.

She is finished whether or not she admits it.

To this point Barak Obama has spent $158,509,856 to defeat Hillary Clinton (Source).

To this point Hillary Clinton has spent $108,862,564 to not defeat Barak Obama (Source)

That means that democratic candidates have spent $267,372,420 to choose a nominee.

That's incredible, isn't it?

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"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"

Charles Darwin