Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Delegate math

Barak Obama has 1413 pledged delegates and 208 super delegates for a total of 1621 delegates.

Hillary Clinton has 1242 pledged delegates and 237 super delegates for a total of 1479 delegates.

John Edwards has 18 pledged delegates.

Democratic candidates need 2024 delegates to win the nomination.
Obama therefore needs 403 more delegates (1621 + 403 = 2024).
Hillary needs 545 more delegates (1479 +545 = 2024).

3118 delegates awarded so far (1621 + 1479 + 18).
There are 4047 total delegates.
There are, then, 929 delegates remaining.

There are 566 pledged delegates left, ranked in descending delegate order below:

Pennsylvania has 158 delegates and votes on April 22nd
North Carolina has 115 delegates and votes on May 16th
Indiana has 72 delegates and votes on May 6th
Puerto Rico has 55 delegates and votes on June 7th
Oregon has 52 delegates and votes on May 20th
Kentucky has 51 delegates and votes on May 20th
West Virginia has 28 delegates and votes on May 13th
Montana has 16 delegates and votes on June 3rd
South Dakota has 15 delegates and votes on June 3rd
Guam has 4 delegates and votes on May 3rd

This means there are 363 super delegates remaining (929 - 566)

Now that we have the info we can look at the odds.

Obama needs 403 of the 929 remaining delegates, so he needs 43.38% of the total to win the nomination (403/929).

Hillary needs 545 of the 929 remaining delegates, so she needs 58.67% of the total to win the nomination (545/929).


Here are the places she garnered those kinds of pledged delegate numbers:

Hillary won 59.14% of the pledged delegates in Massassachusetts's (55 of 93).
Hillary won 59.91% of the pledged delegates in New York (139 of 232).
Hillary won 63.16% of the pledged delegates in Oklahoma (24 of 38).
Hillary won 66.66% of the pledged delegates in American Samoa (2 of 3).

Source

I cannot resist pointing out here that Democrats will be counting the votes in Guam, Puerto Rico, and American Samoa while ignoring those of Florida and Michigan.

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Foot Quotes

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"

Charles Darwin