No more kebabs

A Washington Post reporter reports on the Iraq he left behind.

Iraq's Barbed Realities

A lot of the reconstruction money Rajiv hopes for has gone missing without a trace.

Show me the money

My guess is that a lot of that money has been funneled to the resistance. That would be the height of incompetence, since it would mean my tax dollars were funding US troops and their assassins too. I hope my guts are wrong.

It wouldn't surprise me, though, especially as news from al Qa Qaa floats to the surface:

Tons of explosives missing from Iraq

Hackworth's plan for Iraq

David Hackworth is America's most highly decorated living soldier. Here is his plan for turning the corner in Iraq:

Memo for the President-Elect

It sounds like Hackworth is a bigger believer in the Powell doctrine than Powell. I think I might be too, especially that bit about victory tied to exit strategy.

I believe John Kerry would be quick to execute many of these items (especially the first), but I don't know his affinity for some of the people Hack mentions (like Anthony Zinni). I know I have blogged in favor of Zinni since he doesn't mince words and is unquestionably tough and competent.

I also would add one important item to Hack's plan and it is something John Kerry reportedly tried to act upon. This country needs to be united by a good-faith non-partisan effort to fight terrorism more effectively at home and abroad. We are all in the same boat when it comes to protecting America. Nobody asked the victims of 911 whether they were Republilcan or Democrat before they killed them.

This is a serious problem and we need a serious man to face it. John Kerry, I submit, will do the job better.

They'll say anything

Dick Cheney and George W. Bush, but particularly Cheney, will say anything to get themselves elected. FDR once said, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." The Bush/Cheney motto seems to be, "We're afraid of the big bad wolf, the big bad wolf, the big bad wolf. Oh, we're afraid of the big bad wolf, cause he has a nuclear bomb."

The New York Times is now calling these two on their political fear mongering.

Chiller Theater

For the fence sitters

Let's say that you are an undecided voter and you are trying to decide whether or not President Bush misled America when attacking Iraq. If that is the case, then you should read this clear, fact-filled, article which claims vigorously that he did.

The Brief Against Bush

By the time you reach the bottom you may wish to burn your dictionary, but I hope not.

Pre 911 Thinking

President Bush likes to charge Kerry with "Pre-911 thinking". I thought about that statement in relation to the President and here is what I came up with.

Democrats and Republicans compete furiously and animosity can get out of control sometimes. Sometimes the good of the country can take a back seat to politics.

After 911 that partisan bickering needed to stop. After 911 the politics of race, gender, sex, and morality needed to stop. It is pre-911 thinking to govern from the extremes, whether left or right.

After 911 my wife had to stand in line for an entire day to donate blood. After 911 Britain played the Star Spangled Banner. After 911 France's Le Monde declared "Today we are all Americans". After 911 the Red Cross was flooded with more disaster relief money than it needed for the worst terrorist attack in our nation's history".

George Bush, rather than seizing that historic moment, rather than calling upon a higher standard of conduct from Americans and asking us to put aside our partisan ways, came out and divided America like never before. George Bush came out and asked Congress to discriminate against gay people in our Constitution. George Bush ridiculed our allies. George Bush pushed through laws which spend public money on religious organizations. George Bush passed the Patriot Act, an act publicly denounced by hundreds of cities and several states as un-American. George Bush ignored moderate voices and fiscal conservatives in his own party, creating more government, more debt, and entangling our nation in an unjustifiable war.

"God, gays, and guns" is pre-911 thinking. Post-911 it needs to be about all of us. There should be no more Democrats and Repubilcans in Washington, only US legislatures doing what is right for the people.

NOTE: I'll be travelling and there may not be any posts until Wednesday. Keep the faith.

Roger on John

My friend Roger really enjoys probabilities and statistical analysis. I remember one time we went to a resteraunt and there were dice on the table which he rolled and explained a lot about probability to me. I am not sure how much I retained, which is why it is a pleasure to have him post today about the Presidential race. Here are his views on Kerry's chances in November. He mentions Maine because I was curious about its' importance.

Moe,

I have just discovered the poll tracker at MSN Slate. It is the best I have seen. It combines the information from all of the polls with good judgment as to which polls can be trusted and which cannot. They have Kerry winning 276 - 262. They conclude that Kerry will win all of the Gore states except Iowa. In Maine, they expect him to win the popular vote but lose one district. Slate predicts Kerry to win Ohio. This gives him the election.

The prediction at electoral-vote.com (EV) is Kerry by 301-237. There are two major differences between EV and Slate. First, EV relies on the latest poll numbers even if they come from an organization that may be unreliable. Slate looks at all recent polls. Second, EV assumes that the undecided voters will break 2-1 in favor of Kerry. The 2-1 phenomenon seems supported by results from past presidential and non-presidential elections. However I am skeptical that it can be so readily applied in this election.

Now that you have heard all of that, let me update my own probabilistic model.

Using Zogby as the primary reference, Kerry is set to win the Gore states except for Maine where he will likely win 3 of 4 electors. Kerry is also set to carry New Hampshire. This gives Kerry 263 electoral votes. To win the election, Kerry needs an additional 7 electoral votes. There are 6 states with 7 or more electoral votes where Kerry has a chance to win. Here they are with the latest Zogby numbers:

Ohio: Bush by 3 points
Florida: Bush by 1 point
Missouri: Bush by 3 points
Virginia: Bush by 3 points
Tennessee: Bush by 2 points
North Carolina: Bush by 3 points

I assess the likelihood of Kerry winning in Ohio at 1/4, and Florida 1/3. I assess the likelihood of winning one of the remaining four states at 1/10. But note that if Kerry were to win any of these four states it would signal that Bush has crashed and burned. In that case Kerry would likely carry Ohio and Florida as well.

Combining the probabilities, the probability that Kerry wins the election is 0.55.

An interesting situation can occur with Arkansas. If Kerry were to win Arkansas while losing the other swing states, the result would be 269-269. With Maine splitting 3-1, Arkansas has no relevance to the election.

Roger

Mr. Kerry you wouldn't believe the lobster you can get in Maine - they're delicious! Come on out and touch a hand and make a friend if you can.

The way we pass

The way we pass

You don't have to kill them.
You could let them bee.
There are friends in the air.
There are songs in that tree.

You could open your heart.
You could watch them in wonder.
Those are intricate things.
Don't stomp them all under!

Like Santa you stalk,
With a poisonous sack,
While innocents die
From your toxic attack.

We walk through the woods,
Seldom stopping, seldom staring.
We walk through the woods,
Without seeing, without caring.

We walk through the woods without knowing,
Only caring where we're going,
And never knowing where we've been.
The way we pass must be a sin.

U.M.

Visualize Winning

If you need help visualizing a Kerry Presidency, then this links for you:

Kerry Wins!

Our Pollyanna Press

Democracy is informed consent of the governed, and if you take away information all that is left is consent. The Bush administration, with it's loyalty pledges, outing of CIA agents, cease and desist orders against Rock the Vote, FCC fines levied against prominent detractors (like Howard Stern), and charges of unpatriotic behavior in the face of disagreement, is attempting to manufacture consent.

An American President can get away with this Putin-like behavior because our lousy press is busy building card houses in the tempest-winds of spin. Oh, what fortune smiles upon the politician that faces a self-censoring, self-spinning, uncritical press.

Here are two stories related to today's rant:

Article:

Aboard the good ship USS State of Denial

Video:

Jon Stewart on Crossfire

Secondary Jon Stewart link

Conflicting advice from on high

In this story Pat Robertson says he warned President Bush that God told him the war in Iraq would be a messy disaster.

Bush responded, "Oh, no, we're not going to have any casualties."


Robertson 1, Bush 0

If I were President Bush I'd lay off the prophecy.

An interesting side story is that the President's professional deceivers (PR people) are calling Robertson a liar (by implication of their denial). I wonder how this will play out.

I am willing to admit that President Bush seems touched in the head, but I cannot confirm he has received "a blessing from heaven."

Wait! I am getting something! What's that Lord? Uh huh. You say John Kerry has also received your blessing as have all sons of man? Great news God! Thanks!

More catastrophic success

I hate to be accused of being a negative Nellie, but things in Iraq are going contrary to Bush's chest-thumping assertions. Take a look at two news stories from today for a sniff of the magnitude of the President's spin:

Family of 6 killed

One has to wonder just exactly how many safehouses are left after months of arial bombardment. One also has to wonder why we are sending planes to capture an intelligence target. One has to wonder just how many civilians we are willing to murder in order to free (so far it's a lot).

In other news, there are early reports that "Four children killed, 20 people injured, including 11 US troops in double car bombing against US military convoy near nursery school in Samarra. Sunni Triangle town captured by US and Iraqi forces earlier this month." More (potentially) here


If reality catches up to this President's rhetoric his goose is cooked. I know it. He knows it. Karl Rove knows it.

So I expect.....

There'll be a new accusation from an undisclosed location that is pure fabrication in need of documentation.

Will you take your eye off the ball when it comes? Most do. I'll give you a hint, "Vietnam was 30 years ago. Iraq is our generation's test."

Statement by William G. Milliken

William G. Milliken is a lifelong Republican and from 1969 to 1983 he served as Governor of Michigan.

William G. Milliken is endorsing John Kerry:

Chop

Thank you Mr. Milliken for voting your principles, even when it means discarding your party's candidate. Also, thanks for making your views public.

Something that struck me while reading your letter is that there is a lot of common ground between your views and my views. Maybe we're not so far apart as many pretend?

Never have the Democrats worked so hard to deliver a candidate this worthy of your trust, and it is my sincere hope that you will be proud of your vote in hindsight.

For the fence sitters

Fence sitters, those people that can't make up their mind who to vote for, are looking for answers more than platitudes. Despondently many of them turn to television and find ideological shouting matches and spin-peddlers. I say, "Who can blame them for being confused?"

If you are worried about terrorists and you want to know why John Kerry will be better at stopping them, then read this detailed rationale:

Idea Man

Brent Scowcroft unloads

If you didn't know this was Brent Scowcroft talking you might think it was a yellow-dog liberal. I found Mr. Scowcroft's comments about Ariel Sharon especially surprising.

Chop

Brent Scowcroft was national security adviser under President George H.W. Bush and a man as loyal to the Republican party as the Bush dynasty. When dyed in the wool Republicans talk like this about their candidate what does it mean?

I think that reasonable Republicans recognize a dangerous incompetent in George W. Bush and are trying to reach the faithful with that message in increasing vociferousness.

A quiz for the undecided voter

If you are an undecided voter you might want to take this quiz from the Kansas Wichita Eagle.


Undecided quiz

Choosy dictators choose Bush

Once upon a time if a Russian dictator bid Americans to support a candidate, said candidate would be hunted down and run out of America by Joe McCarthy and a torch-bearing mob.

Well, today Russia's dictator Rootin' Tootin' Putin is urging voters in the US to back Bush.

Bush, the communist choice

I've got my torch at the ready.

Bob Barr on Bush

Bob Barr, a lifelong Republican who represented parts of Cobb County and northwest Georgia in Congress from 1995 to 2003, has many reservations about Bush.

He lists them in an article he wrote called, "Conservatives have plenty of cause to abandon Bush".


Chop

Reason vs Religion

A strong belief in Santa Claus does not ensure a sleigh full of presents.

Without a Doubt

IAEA allegations

The IAEA charges that the WMD equipment that they had tagged and which we knew about was not secured or guarded and cannot now be found.

Ooops

Ou est le WMD?

This is catastrophic incompetence at best if true. I am hopeful that US forces removed the facilities in question, but cannot understand why they would keep mum about it. Unless....unless they want to cart these pre-tagged WMDs out as a decoy in late October.

Did Bush cheat in the debates?

There is a lot of speculation that President Bush was wearing a transceiver and receiving coaching during the debates.

Yogi Bera once said you can observe a lot by looking, and there is clearly a noticable bulge beneath the President's jacket during the debates (See here). The Whitehouse, via President Bush's French (hem hem) tailor, explained that the bulge was a "pucker". Pucker my arse!

In the President's defense it could be something like a buckle on a gun holster or a pack of playing cards. Maybe he put an energy bar back there for later (he is a biker). I suppose it could also be 1099 free hours of AOL 9.0. Perhaps it is a frequency scrambling device to jam remote-controlled bombs. In reality it could be a lot of things, but it is decidedly not a "pucker".

I don't know if this is worth big media attention or not. There was clearly something there and the Whitehouse is being shifty about providing an explanation.

I don't suppose anyone recorded the 216 to 217 MHz band during the debates? That might provide interesting clues.

Well, anyway, here is an editorial on the subject.

What's on his back?