Saturday, November 06, 2004

The dollar responds to hollow rhetoric

Bush might be able to fool most of the people most of the time when he says he'll pay that deficit down by half by 2009, but he doesn't appear able to fool currency traders:

Dollar Falls On Fears of U.S. Deficits

He also doesn't appear able to convince the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office that his plan will work.

Not gonna work

And finally, you could say that I remain unimpressed with this President's economic talents.

Friday, November 05, 2004

Election update

Early reports placed absentee ballots at 250,000 or more, but in the end the official tally of provisional ballots in Ohio was 135,000.

This explains why Kerry conceded defeat. There is no way to squeeze 136,000 votes out of 135,000 votes cast.

Ohio Math

This means Kerry fought to the end and didn't stop until he knew it was impossible to win.

I play hockey and know that you can sometimes take more pride in a loss than a win if it was hard-fought. When you are expected to lose and you make it a game, when you battle injuries or kill off penalties, when you refuse to quit and just miss that is not a time to hang your head. No doubt it's bitter, but you put people on notice for next time, and I enjoy that feeling too.

How did Teddy Roosevelt put it? It is better to fail while daring greatly, than to be among the timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.

Remember, if you feel isolated, that 55.4 million Americans voted with you. Kerry dared greatly and lost, but he'll get back up and the Democrats aren't done. I enjoy this feeling too, although no doubt it is bitter.

Joy is on the ice between the boards. Keep skating.

Thursday, November 04, 2004

Allow me to say it

May God bless and keep Bill Clinton and may he please lay off the pizza and hard living until at least 2008.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Suck it up

Joshua Micah Marshall has one of my favorite blogs. Today he has words to live by if you are a Democrat.

Stick together

If you need something to smile about consider that Texas was hit with a foot of snow in places.

Snow down low

Kerry Concedes Defeat

The fat lady, it seems, is singing.

Four more years

With 60% of Americans turning out and nary a Nader voter America has spoken. Divisive times lie ahead, since this President will no more try to unite us than he would stop to spit in my face if I were dying of thirst.

Ugh.

A sobering look at the numbers

Here is a link to CNN's vote tallies for Ohio:

CNN.com Election 2004

As it stands, with 100% of the precincts reporting, President Bush has 2,794,346 votes
John Kerry has 2,658,125 votes. That gives President Bush a lead of 136,221 votes.

The votes that are yet to be counted in Ohio are the provisional ballots, which are hard to get an exact number on but seems to be at least 250,000 ballots.

Let's assume these ballots are all counted and that they are all counted fairly (perhaps a naive assumption with a small army of lawyers on both sides). However, I am going to consider what I can predict.

With 250,000 ballots in play and a Bush lead of 136,221 votes it is clear the provisional ballots need to break resoundingly for Kerry. Traditionally new voters break 2:1 for the incumbent, which would produce these results:

Bush: 2,877,679
Kerry: 2,824,791

That means Kerry would need to do better than that to win. In fact he would need to grab about 194,000 (77%) of the 250,000 provisional ballots to defeat the President at this point.

This would produce these numbers:

Bush: 2,850,346
Kerry: 2,852,125


I, therefore, propose this to President Bush. Let them count the ballots without fight and ask Kerry to do the same for the good of the country. If Kerry refuses he looks bad, and if he accepts your victory parade seems all the more imminent.

Otherwise, it will come to light that Ohioans have been getting phone calls for people that don't live in their homes. Someone calls, for instance, and asks for Joe Smith where only Jack and Jill Smith reside. Apparently Jack is on the voting lists and the callers want to offer them rides to the polls. I have confirmed this with people I trust in Ohio.

In other words, it could be deja vu all over again.

Second verse, same as the first

America will have to wait until Ohio counts 250,000 provisional ballots to know who won the Presidential election. The Bush Whitehouse is declaring victory, proving once again how little regard they have for facts and the opinions of voters.

I had hoped that Americans would soundly reject:

Incompetent prosecution of a war (see al QaQaa).
Incompetent administration of the budget (see deficit).
An international soiling of America's name (travel abroad).
The intermingling of religion and politics.
Outing of CIA agents (see Valerie Plame)
Lying to Congress (i.e. "We know where the WMDs are")
Lying to the American people (i.e. "Mission Accomplished")
A record of failure at creating jobs (1.6 million lost).
Abu Gharaib abuses.
Laughable debate performances.
and so on...

I view President Bush as a mixture of Harding and Nixon, but someone a lot more dumb than Nixon and more incompetent than Harding. I am, therefore, at a loss to explain a close race. Now, I have been raised to trust the instinct of the American people, but in this case I feel I am missing the point. Where's the man's up-side?

Ohio has until November 15th to count the ballots and you can be sure of two things:

1. Lawyers for Kerry will be pressing to have those votes counted.
2. Lawyers for Bush will be pressing to disenfranchise those voters.

In America we should always count the votes, for it is not in the voting but in the counting that Democracy lives.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Should he stay or should he go?

You must choose your man today, Kerry or Bush, and I wish you luck. Hopefully you have found relevant information for your search on this site. In a last-ditch effort to persuade you to vote for Kerry I offer you two traditionally conservative endorsements of John Kerry.

The Economist gives grudging support to John Kerry, but support nonetheless. Here is a sample from the article "The incompetent or the incoherent" published in the October 30th - November 5th edition:

"Mr Bush's credibility has been considerably undermined not just by Guantanamo, but also by two big things: by the sheer incompetence and hubristic thinking evident in the way in which his team set about the rebuilding of Iraq, once Saddam Hussein's regime had been toppled; and by the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, which strengthened the suspicion that the mistreatment or even torture of prisoners was being condoned."


AND

"But changing the regime so incompetently was a huge mistake. By having far too few soldiers to provide security and by failing to pay Saddam's remnant army, a task that was always going to be long and hard has been made much, much harder. Such incompetence is no mere detail: thousands of Iraqis have died as a result and hundreds of American soldiers. The eventual success of the mission, while still possible, has been put in unnecessary jeopardy."



As if that isn't surprising enough, Scott McConnell of the American Conservative has endorsed Kerry.

Here is a link to that article, lest you fail to believe me:

Chop

The most persuasive case against President Bush is made by traditional conservatives, I think, which is why I like to publish their detractions. When I make many of the same claims I am dismissed as "partisan", but when Scott McConnell makes them that is hardly applicable.

This is a crucial election that will shape America at home and abroad for years to come. Here's hoping the best man wins.

Monday, November 01, 2004

Helen on George

Helen Thomas is the dean of the press and she has seen a lot of politicians in her lifetime. Her latest article called "Bush Win Would Mean Dark Times" is a firm denunciation of the Bush presidency.

Validating preemptive war

Fight for your right to partake

Tomorrow is election day and here are some handy resources to help make your experience as smooth as possible.

Find your polling place

Your polling place

Election protection

If you show up at your polling place and someone tries to keep you from voting, then you ought to whip out your election protection card and take action. Print this out, share it with friends, and take it with you when you vote.

Election Protection

Know your rights

If your name is not on the official voter list but you believe you are eligible to vote in that precinct, even if an election official challenges your vote, you have the right to cast a "provisional ballot."

If you're in line when the polls close, you should stay in line because you're entitled to vote.

In many states, your employer must allow you time to vote at some point during the day. You can't be fired for being late due to long polling lines.

You have the right to vote without being intimidated by anyone.

For your rights in your own state, check out this website: State-specific rights


Take this with you

You need to establish two things in order to vote and those are proof of identity and proof of residency. In the event of a problem the person armed with this paperwork would be boyscout-ready to handle it.

Proof of identity:

1. A valid driver's license.
2. Valid state ID (picture) card.
3. Valid passport.
4. Military ID.
5. Valid college ID (picture) card.

Proof of residency:

1. A valid driver's license with current address.
2. Valid vehicle registration with current address.
3. Currently dated rent receipt, lease agreement, or resident tax bill showing valid residential street address.
4. Checking account with voter name and current address.
5. Current utility bill with current residential address.
6. Current payroll check with voter name and current residential address.

NOTE: Proof of residency can not include mail addressed to "Resident" or "Occupant".

Caveats:

Without proof of residency you may often swear a voter registration oath. You should keep in mind that lying under oath is a felony and therefore you should be accurate about the information you provide.

Without proof of identity you may still vote, however your vote will be automatically challenged and scrutinized in a recount.

Finally:

I hope there is a large turnout so that no matter who wins the American people will have spoken. I think this election is too important to be decided by apathy.

Sunday, October 31, 2004

Halloween fright

When crowds of brown-shirts swore loyalty pledges to Hitler, here is what they said:

"I swear to devote all my energies, all my strength, to the savior of our country, Adolf Hitler. I am willing and ready to give up my life, so help me God. One People, One nation, One Fuhrer."


When crowds of Republicans swear loyalty pledges to President Bush, here is what they say:


One Nation Under Bush


The pledges are different in construct, but I think loyalty pledges are a toe in un-American waters. When there is talk of blood intermixed with God in the loyalty pledges don your life preserver.

Question Time in Florida

The BBC has a program called "Question Time", which a friend bills as "Democracy in action." The program was down in Florida recently taking questions from the audience and you can watch it here:

Question Authority

The panelists were:

Michael Moore, filmmaker
David Frum, President Bush's former speech-writer
Sydney Blumenthal, President Clinton advisor
Richard Littlejohn, British journalist
Lida Rodriguez-Taseff, Civil liberties Attorney


There are a bit of theatrics involved but the program is worth watching.

Saturday, October 30, 2004

One quarter of working Americans live in poverty: study

Roosevelt thought is was abnormal for a man to work and be poor (see The Farmer and the Businessman, or Social and Industrial Justice by FDR). That scenario is becoming normal under Bush as more than a quarter of WORKING Americans live in poverty.

Hi ho! Hi ho! It's off to debt we go!

President Bush's policies aren't lifting all boats. In fact, many have been kicked out of their boats and are treading water. The yachts, though, are doing well.

Friday, October 29, 2004

Al what?

Paul Krugman's articles have become more acidic as the election approaches. His latest is down-right caustic:

It's Not Just Al Qaqaa

Karl Rove must be glad that Paul Krugman isn't a NASCAR announcer.

Kerry's chances

I have asked Roger to blog about the odds of a Kerry Presidency and he has graciously submitted the following post. If you reside in one of the states he identifies as crucial maybe you ought to volunteer your services with one of these organizations:

Move On

America Coming Together (ACT)

If you ain't got the time, then I'm sure your financial contributions would be appreciated here:

Contribute to Democrats

And now, on to Roger's analysis:

Moe,

There have been significant changes in the battlefield states in the past month. Two states, Iowa and New Mexico, have gradually changed their color from blue to red. The change seems to be statistically significant, beyond the margin of error. Wisconsin, which was never a "strong Kerry" state has become a see-saw between Bush and Kerry. The good news is small news: New Hampshire and Maine seem to be safely in the Kerry block.

A month ago there were many plausible combinations of states that would have led to a Kerry victory. That number now seems reduced only to a few. In fact there are only three states that are variables in the Kerry election calculus. These are Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin.

If Kerry wins the Gore states, excluding Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico, and if he wins New Hampshire, then he will have 242 electoral votes. He needs another 28 votes to win the election. By itself, Florida (27 electoral votes) will not win the election since that would give him 269, putting him at the mercy of a Republican congress. So he must win Florida and some other state. If he wins Ohio (20 electoral votes) then he needs to win an additional state with at least 8 electoral votes.

A composite of recent polls gives Bush a 1% lead in Florida. Statistically, due to the large number of polls, this lead is significant and is beyond the margin of error. Based on this composite we would expect Bush to carry Florida by at least 50,000 votes. But the situation in Florida is volatile and frenzied. There is speculation that the turnout may reach 75%. Such a large turnout makes polling difficult. Pollsters use historical voting patterns as a template for their current polls. Their results can be skewed if their template does not fit the profile of the current voting population. With the infusion of many new voters and with the likelihood that many 2000 non-voters may become 2004 voters, I think there is an element of uncertainty with all Florida polls. For this reason I feel that Kerry has a reasonable chance in Florida, at least 1/3.

Ohio is a state that has good reasons to vote for Kerry. Cleveland has recently replaced Detroit as the poorest city in America. Over the past month there has been a gradual shift to Kerry. Most polling groups now expect Kerry to carry Ohio. I give him 3/4.

Wisconsin seemed safe for Kerry in early September. Since then there have been a number of polls that have shown Bush to be leading. Strategic Vision, a Republican outfit, has consistently shown Bush to be ahead. Zogby, except for one poll, has Kerry in the lead. Zogby probably has it right. I give Kerry a 2/3 chance of carrying Wisconsin.

There is a set of small Bush-leaning states that come into play if Kerry wins in Florida. The list includes Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Arkansas, and West Virginia. Colorado and Missouri might also be included. It is likely that Bush will win all of these states. I give Kerry a 1/5 chance of winning at least one of these states. The likelihood that Kerry will win two or more is virtually zero.

The probability that Kerry wins the election comes in two pieces. [1.] Florida and an additional state. This additional state could be Ohio, Wisconsin, or a state in the list of small red states. This has the probability of 0.31. [2.] Ohio and Wisconsin, or, Ohio and two of the small red states. This has the probability 0.50. Since these two pieces are mutually exclusive, we can add the probabilities. The likelihood of Kerry winning the election is 0.81.

This is a remarkable result. I am honestly quite surprised since I expected Bush to be the probable winner. This result is even more remarkable when one considers that Bush has a 1.5-2.0 point lead in the national polls.

A few last words. This calculation is optimistic since I have not considered the probability that a state that is predicted to vote for Kerry might vote for Bush. This might occur in Minnesota, Michigan, or New Hampshire. This calculation is pessimistic if the undecided voters break 2-1 toward Kerry. Many pollsters, including Zogby, have predicted this. Should the undecided voters break toward Kerry, Bush would have to take a deep breath and start looking for new job.

Roger


I would like to add that since the Red Sox have won the World Series hope no longer seems like a sucker punch.

Thursday, October 28, 2004

Why Bush must go


Click photo to see why Posted by Hello

The eyes have it

KSTP-TV in Minneapolis/St. Paul has video footage of the Al Qaqaa explosives taken after the Iraq war started. Karl Rove will have to come up with a lot of BS to cover the ol' Presidential posterior on this one!

Disputed Iraq Explosives in Place After Invasion

I'm guessing that your average Joe knows this is gross incompetence which directly endangers the lives of American GIs. The question now is whether or not your average Joe will hold the President responsible.

Your average Moe does.

I'm stunned

The Boston Red Sox have won the World Series and I am stunned. The curse has been lifted and the desire of a lifetime has been fulfilled.

Here is my favorite joke about the Red Sox:

A man winds up in hell and the devil places him in a chamber of eternal torment. To make the newcomer uncomfortable the devil turns up the heat to 98 degrees and leaves. When he returns in a while to check on him the "guest" has a gigantic smile on his face. When pressed by the devil he says that he lived his life in New England and it felt terrific to be in nice warm weather. Undeterred, the devil turned the heat up to 120 degrees and left the "guest" alone for a few more days. Upon his return he was shocked to see his charge smiling a gigantic smile. It turned out the prisoner had met is wife in the Carribean and the sweltering temperatures brought back his fondest memories.

The devil was somewhat irate, but he had a new plan. He turned the heat down far below zero degrees and left for a few days. This time, when he returned his charge was celebrating wildly and shouting at the top of his lungs, "The Red Sox must have won the World Series! The Red Sox must have won the World Series!"


I always figured that if the Red Sox won the World Series it would go to overtime in the seventh game and the other team would commit a series of errors so egregious that even the Red Sox could capitalize. I was unprepared for the Red Sox to sweep their opponent in 4 games, while shutting them out in the deciding game. I was unprepared for the Red Sox starters in games 2, 3, and 4 to allow exactly zero earned runs.

This could be Boston's year. The Red Sox won the World Series, the Patriots broke the NFL's consecutive win record, and John Kerry is poised to lift the Bush curse from the nation.

It feels good just to be alive.

The Red Sox have won the World Series.
The Red Sox have won the World Series.
The Red Sox have won the World Series.
The Red Sox have won the World Series.
The Red Sox have won the World Series.

Anything is possible now.

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Mosh

Q: What is Karl Rove's worst nightmare?

Eminem depicts it in this video (which by the way contains adult language).

Real player version

Windows Media Player version

For the fence sitters

Undecided voters, I think, are people that want empiracal data and have a hard time finding it. So, this post is all about data.

Under George W. Bush:


Health care costs are up 64 percent

College tuition is up 35 percent

Gas prices are up 30 percent

Medicare premiums are up 17 percent

Prescription drugs are up 12 percent

Family income is down $1500

1.6 million private sector jobs have been lost

Five million more Americans lost their health insurance.

Four milllion people moved from the middle class to poverty

Half a million children lost after-school programs

The American debt ceiling has risen drastically (Rising debt

The take-home pay of the average American family, as a share of national income, is the lowest it has been since 1929.

American forces in Iraq are now attcked an average of 87 times a day, up 100% since spring.

Many in the press seem to think facts are "boring". I think they have the capacity to change the course of history.

Foot Quotes

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"

Charles Darwin